So, the entire DC metropolitan area is freaking out. I've heard predictions of 12-18, 18-24, even 40-60 inches (!! -- I'm truly not joking on this one, but it wasn't the most reliable source, mind you.) And, so, I thought it only fair to bring some reason to the table, for you, my few, my faithful, my dear-dear readers.
Factors for consideration in Snowcast:
1. Snow may start falling as early as 10am Friday and continue until 10pm Saturday. I do recognize that this is a crazy long time for snow to fall, if it, indeed, does fall continuously.
2. The temperatures are predicted to hover right around the freezing mark. Now, any good mountain girl knows that those temperatures make for a good, heavy storm. However, that also means there's a possibility that it will rain and freezing-rain for many of the hours of the storm.
3. People (and governments) in the metro area are crazy when it snows. (This one is for free and does not necessarily affect my snowcast.)
My Official Snowcast:
Either:
1. World ending Snowpocalypse: 26-30 inches of snow, requiring two days to clean up, snowman building, and at least one snowball fight in the District requiring police intervention.
2. Snowpointment: A dissapointing 6-10 inches of snow resulting from 2 hours of snow followed by 12 hours of rain/freezing-rain, followed by another few hours of snow. Along with this comes the terribly annoying sound of freezing rain that is likely to go on most of the night. Snowpointing, for sure.
Check back here for updates!!
2 comments:
Nice post Hyla! Not bad for a general public post.
The following is unofficial (my personal opinion):
at least 90% of the precip in DC Friday and Saturday will be snow. It'll be cold enough for snow at the beginning and it WILL be snow all saturday as the storm pulls away (with northerly winds). Any sleet/snow grains would come around midnight Saturday as warmer atlantic air reaches it's northernmost point (could tickle dc...that's a professional term :).
The last few model runs suggest 2.0 to 2.5" of liquid equivalent. with a 10:1 snow ratio that would be 20 to 25" of snow. While 10:1 is expected through friday night...it will be higher for saturday in the colder air...up to 15:1. There for I'd expect 22 to 28".
28" is the record storm total snowfall. In January 1922, DC received about 28" of snow...collapsing the Knickerbocker Theater roof which killed 98 people.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/storm-pr.htm
Another factor will be winds late friday night through saturday. That, and the developing coastal low may be intense enough to form an eye. I think the appropriate name for the storm will be something like blizz-cane 2010 for near-if-not-at blizzard winds of 35 mph for 2+ hours.
wow! I've never gotten a detailed personalized forecast from a real-live meteorologist before!!
Thanks, Bryan!
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